Thursday, March 26, 2015

Faber : The US Stock Market could go even Higher


 ET Now: You have said that one should always bet on mega trends, bet on the big picture. So what are the three mega trends for this decade?

Marc Faber : We are half way into the decade, there are only five years left. As I told you, I personally do not rule out that the US stocks could go up somewhat more, but if you take a 5 to 10-year view, the investors will make more money in emerging economies than in the US. I believe that geopolitical problems are here to stay. I also happen to believe that the Middle East will blow up and whereas everybody was very positive about oil when it was trading around $100 a barrel and above. The same analysts now think it will go down to 20.
My guess is that the price of oil has an equilibrium price of between $40 and $60 and it will settle around that level eventually. Can it drop to $20 for a few days? Yes, it dropped to $32 in December 2008, but then rebounded very strongly. So a lot of things can happen. I would also say that the Chinese stock market, which performed even worse than India after 2006 relative to global markets, bottomed out last summer and we had a huge run-up in prices in the last three-four months of about 50% on the Shanghai A Index. A correction is due, but I believe that China will also join the club of money printers. - in Economic Times of India






Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Marc Faber: Indian Stocks can correct by 20%




How do you see Indian markets performing in 2015?

Marc Faber: At this point of time, Indian stocks are due for a correction. I think we could easily have a 10-20 per cent correction going forward. Indian markets are not about one market, they are diversified within. There are some index socks which are trading at 50-times their earnings, which are not bargain buys; while there are some companies that are reasonably valued.

There have been huge expectations from the Modi government on economic reforms. What is your take on India's reform policies?

Marc Faber: The problems for India are Indians themselves. The country needs a leader like Narendra Modi, but he needs to implement the reform policies. In my view that has hardly improved because of horrendous politics, bureaucracy and corruption. Reforms may rather disappoint. That's why I said that we are witnessing the beginning of a market correction. The expectations from reforms may meet with disappointment because they have been very high. I don't see foreigners meaningfully increasing their exposure to India.

Do you see Indian markets getting re-rated anytime soon?

Marc Faber: The Indian economy is doing slightly better than others. But if you analyse the indicators growth would not be 8 per cent, what the government is claiming. I think the Indian economy is growing maximum 5 per cent per annum. Look at the current economic environment, exports are not growing strongly, industrial production in the second half of last year was barely up. Hence, I don't think the economy is growing anywhere near 8 per cent. It may be growing at 5 per cent. But when I compare 5 per cent growth with 0 per cent or 1 per cent growth elsewhere in the world, this 5 per cent growth is very good. - via the Economic Times of India

Marc Faber
Marc Faber



Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Decoupling between Economic activity and Asset Markets



ET Now: Do you think financial markets are very naive in the way they are reacting? The world is fighting for deflation, but despite a global growth scare, most of the major markets are sitting at a record high, be it DAX, the Nikkei or the NASDAQ.

Marc Faber : Yes. There is decoupling between economic activity and asset markets. If you look at the economies globally, we know that in Europe there is hardly any growth. Can Europe, relative to its poor performance of the last few years, grow this year by 1-1.5%? It is possible, but we understand GDP is not a very relevant measure of economic well-being. In the US, the latest statistics are rather disappointing and in China, we have meaningful slowdown as well as in all resource producers of the world.

John Anderson, my friend who is a very good economist and also has his own consulting firm, calculated that the GDP figures in India are actually overstating economic growth significantly. It does not mean that he is bearish about the Indian financial assets. I am also positive essentially about the Indian assets, but growth is not what the government is publishing.
- in Economic Times of India





Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
MARC FABER BLOG

Dr. Marc Faber Tomorrow's Gold







Dr. Marc Faber author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report is a world class Investor, Doctor Faber 's typically controversial and contrarian views have earned him the label of Dr. Doom. Doctor Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold Natural Gas and Crude Oil.Even his harshest critics must admit that he's been unerringly correct in his market forecasts over the past three decades . Marc Faber is a Swiss investor.He was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. Faber is publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter and is the director of Marc Faber Ltd which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.