Thursday, May 6, 2010

Marc Faber on The Markets Selloff triggered by The Greece Riots

Faber Says Plunge Caused by Market Rising `Too Quickly'

Marc Faber : "I do not think that Greece is the cause of the selloff , I believe it is a catalyst but the cause of the fail off is that the market run up too much too quickly , in other words most emerging markets were up more than hundred percent from the March 2009 lows and the S&P is up more than eighty percent and as I have argued we would see a 20% to 30% correction this year anyway now it just happened that these 20% correction happened within ten days we made a low today at 1060 on the S&P the low on February fifth this year was 1045 and then we rallied to 1220 and now we dropped and closed at 1128 , so I think that the market was over bought ahead of itself and due for a correction anyway and then the computer programs as the market started to go down they had to change their positions from being long to short and that then triggered the big selloff "
Marc Faber :"I think that Asia will go down today , the question is by how much , because the Asian markets were not as overbought as the S&P , The Hang Seng index was before the selloff begin below the November highs and the Shanghai index was below the November highs and below the August 2009 highs so in many asian market we are actually already down on the year and not up like the S&P so may be the decline won't be as brutal , and also I would argue that as of todays low the S&P became about as over sold as it was after the crash in 87 where we had a substantial rebound ".....
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Margaret Brennan about today's selloff in U.S. stocks. U.S. stocks tumbled the most in a year on concern Europes debt crisis will halt the global recovery. (Source: Bloomberg)

Marc Faber on China Gold Silver Equities etc - Chinese TV

Here are two clips of Marc Faber on Asian TV one is Chinese and the second one is is from Singapore , the first clip is new from this month of may and the second clip is from a year earlier Marc Faber : " it is very clear that in the United states the budget deficit in other words the household deficit of the government will next year be at least two trillion dollars in other words over ten percent of GDP , and as far as I can see for the next five , ten twenty years in my opinion we will have government deficit in America and the government will have to print money so eventually it will be inflationary , in hyperinflation the worst is the currency of the country that hyperinflate , say the dollar would be a bad currency choice , well may be for the next six months the dollar can still go up possible , but the best investment in hyperinflation countries is to move out of the country and to invest in other countries and since may be the whole world will have hyperinflation I think that probably gold and silver are quite a good investment"
"We can have a rebound in equities may be thirty percent , may be some equities can go up fifty percent , say if a stock drops from a hundred to five they can easily go to twenty before it goes to zero , it is not a problem so a rebound is quite possible but I think after this rebound people will realize that the economy in 2009 is not going to be good , that the economy will continue to deteriorate and so I would basically look at the rebound as a selling opportunity "
"Well right now if you have hundred percent cash you are the king because you have not lost any money , unless you sold yesterday then you lost a lot of money , but say assuming you had cash for the last twelve months you have not lost any money , everybody else has lost fifty percent , so relatively speaking you are richer , then I would say to hold cash there is also some risk , the risk of inflation one day the currency risk , there is the risk of the bank not paying you back , so I would take say ten percent now and buy some shares then with ten percent buy some physical gold not derivatives at UBS and Citi Group but physical and store it in a safe deposit box , yes and then you wait six months and then you see if in six months time if shares are lower the may be I would put another ten percent in shares, but I do not believe that .., I believe that markets can rebound here but the rebound probably also means that the US Dollar will be weaker for the next say , next few weeks or next few months but then the economy in 2009 continues to worsen , gets worse and then the markets will once again come down and either go lower below the present level or they will at least test the present levels , I think there is a very good chance they will go lower

(LONDON) He is known as "Dr. Doom" the title of a well-known investors Faber (Marc Faber) publicly warned that the current indications, the mainland economy have been there all the signs of the asset bubble, fear will be 9 to 12 months of growth slow, or even "crash" of risk. Faber interview on Bloomberg yesterday warned: "The market is revealed signs of abnormal current message, the mainland's economic bubble signs have emerged, in any case the pace of economic growth will gradually slow down, even in the next 9 to 12 months will crash risk. "Faber also stressed that:" Last week the official opening of the Shanghai World Expo, but the mainland is not a good sign, review history, hosting the World Expo 1873 in Vienna, and later still the stock market falls and economic recession distress. "by the Chinese Communist government's recent strong play room, and the rate of 3 degrees to increase the survival potential impact of China Shanghai Composite stock index has plummeted this year to 12%, the worst performance of major stock markets in Asia. Faber latest bad-mouthing the mainland economy of speech, also echoed the previous hedge fund manager Charles North (Jim Chanos) and Harvard University professor Rogoff (Kenneth Rogoff) the previous view of economic prospects look bad mainland. Although mainland China raised 3 degrees this year survival precision, but the mainland Minister of Finance Xie stressed: "The mainland economy is still developing, are still facing the impact of the global economic crisis, while the People's Bank (PBoC) raised deposit latest precision movement is a technical adjustment, this year will continue to be proactive in fiscal policy, and a moderate easing of monetary policy. "Vice Finance Minister Li Yong yesterday reiterated:" This year will try to appropriate control of the underlying inflation pressures, people line Zuixin announced the increase of deposit precision movement, designed to manage liquidity and inflation risk. "
Translated from the mandarin Chinese text using google translator :
(綜合外電)素有「末日博士」稱號的知名投資人麥嘉華(Marc Faber)公開警告,目前的跡象顯示,大陸經濟所有資產泡沫徵兆都已出現,恐將在9~12個月內成長趨緩,甚至有「崩潰」的風險。麥嘉華昨接受彭博專訪時警告說:「市場當前跡象正透露出不正常的訊息,大陸經濟泡沫跡象已浮現,無論如何經濟將逐步放緩成長腳步,甚至在未來 9~12個月會出現崩潰的風險。」麥嘉華另強調說:「上周上海世界博覽會正式開幕,但這對大陸並非一個好兆頭,回顧歷史,1873年主辦世博會的維也納,後來仍為股市下跌與經濟衰退所困擾。」受中共政府近期強力打房,以及3度調高存準率的衝擊,大陸上海綜合證券指數今年已來已大跌12%,為亞洲主要股市表現最糟。麥嘉華最新唱衰大陸經濟言論,也呼應了先前避險基金經理人查諾斯(Jim Chanos)與哈佛大學教授羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)先前看壞大陸經濟前景看法。儘管大陸今年第3度調升存準率,但大陸財政部部長謝旭人強調:「大陸經濟仍在發展,現依然面臨全球經濟危機的衝擊影響,而人民銀行(人行)最新調升存準率動作是技術性的調整,今年將繼續實施積極的財政政策,以及適度寬鬆的貨幣政策。」財政部副部長李勇昨則重申:「今年將盡力適度控制通膨潛在壓力,人行最新宣布上調存準率動作,目的是管理資金流動性和通膨風險。」


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