Thursday, October 21, 2010
Marc Faber: Well,you know the world is in transition and you have some trends that are favorable and other trends that are no favorable. So I think it’s not a question to be ultra-bearish or ultra-bullish but to try to identify where there are opportunities. And I believe, in general, we live through very interesting times in the sense that the weight of the global economy is shifting to emerging economies....And we’ll have volatility in emerging economies, but in general I think that as a percent of world’s GDP, you will find in 10 20 years time countries like India, China, Vietnam, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, Russia, Central Asia will have a much larger weight and also a much larger say in the global economic affairs and political affairs. And that will lead to a lot of tension and volatilities in asset markets....
Marc Faber : ...... if you really think through the deflation scenario then it would mean that the economy in the western world, notably in the US, is very weak.
So what happens if the economy is very weak under the Obama administration, the fiscal deficit goes up not down. The government tanks as a percent of economy expands. Monetary policies will have another huge easy move, or another extraordinary measure increasing the effects balance sheet. These are all factors that then lead eventually to more inflation.Even if you have an environment where GDP per capita in real terms, inflation adjustment goes down. The government will of course lie about it. They will make it look good with all statistical adjustments they can use. The rate will go down as it has for the last ten years, but asset markets can go up very strongly....etc....
"The currency war can be solved one way: with austerity in the U.S.," "The U.S. needs to redirect the economy to R&D, education and infrastructure expenditure, but instead they want to get spending going again." Marc Faber told reporters at a Russian investment conference today in London.