Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Marc Faber : the bear market for bonds may last 20 years

Marc Faber : ...Basically the bond market in the US has been in a bull market since 1981. In my view, the bull market ended on December 18th, 2008 when the 10 years treasury yield reached a low of 2.08% and the 30 years yield of 2.53%. But the bulls on bonds - the so-called deflationists - will maintain that bonds will continue to rally and that the 10 years yield and the 30 year yields will drop to between, say, one-one quarter per cent and two per cent.

I do not think that this will be the case because if the economy weakens again and you have deflation, that would be required to get these yields down there. You would have further massive fiscal stimulus and as a result of that, the deficit and the government’s debt go up and then the interest payments on the government debt go up. The ability of the government to pay the interest on its debt will diminish if the credit quality goes down. For that reason, I do believe that we will see new lows in interest rates.

So we had the bull market in bonds that lasted 1981 to 2008 - in other words 27 years - and now we are in a bear market for bonds that may last 20 years and bring yields to record highs that would mean on the 10 years note a yield of over 15%. ....

Dr. Marc Faber Tomorrow's Gold

Dr. Marc Faber author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report is a world class Investor, Doctor Faber 's typically controversial and contrarian views have earned him the label of Dr. Doom. Doctor Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold Natural Gas and Crude Oil.Even his harshest critics must admit that he's been unerringly correct in his market forecasts over the past three decades . Marc Faber is a Swiss investor.He was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. Faber is publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter and is the director of Marc Faber Ltd which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.

Dr Faber studied economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in economics. He publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletter The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, which highlights unusual investment opportunities, and is the author of several books, including Tomorrow’s Gold – Asia’s Age of Discovery which was first published in 2002 and highlights future investment opportunities around the world. Tomorrow’s Gold was for several weeks on Amazon’s bestseller list and has been translated into Japanese, Korean, Thai and German. A regular speaker at various investment seminars, Dr Faber is well known for his contrarian investment approach. He is also associated with a variety of funds.