Saturday, June 23, 2012

Government Bonds of Germany, Switzerland, Japan and the US are no longer Safe

ET Now: Do you think globally money managers are extremely risk averse? If I look at US bond yields, they are nearing 1%. If I look at German bond yields, they are also nearing 1%. Do you think it is a matter of time the world will be opening up to risk or do you think for the next two or three quarters risk off trade will continue?
Marc Faber: You are asking a very good question because I have been thinking about this a lot. High quality government bonds of Germany, Switzerland, Japan and the US are at a very low level of interest rate and are no longer safe. So whereas I am not optimistic about asset prices, I think that if you take a 10-year view, then just as an example if you I have to to buy over the next 10 years and the holding period is 10 years, a US treasury note at the yield of 1.6% or I give you the opportunity to put your money in Johnson & Johnson that yields 3.5%. I happen to think that Johnson & Johnson over the next 10 years will outperform treasury norms or treasury bonds of 30 years maturity. But you live with volatility, may be the next 10 minutes or next three months or next six months treasuries may still outperform, but I believe the notion that US treasuries are safe is misplaced. - in ET Now 21 June 2012


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