Wednesday, July 25, 2012

MARC FABER : China Slowdown could Lead to Social Unrest

MARC FABER : well let me point out at the difference between China and the US , the US had credit bubble built on consumption in other words the debt level on the household sector level the government level went up dramatically to finance consumption in the case of China at least it financed investments in infrastructures research and development and so forth that is a key difference , now if you have a capital spending bubble like in china the downturn can be very severe because you're running to over capacities and then when you print money you produce even more over capacities and the fact is simply that if you look at reliable statistics say which country is the largest export market for Taiwan and South Korea ? it's China and if you look at exports from Korea and Taiwan they're all flat year on year so that is quite reliable , you look at electricity production in China it's up one percent year on year and so forth and so on , so the statistics would actually suggest that Chinese economy is much weaker than what the official statistics suggest , it does not mean that all Chinese growth model will collapse entirely , but I'd like to mention one thing , in China we still have One Party System and we have an incredible level of corruption and that could lead to social unrest at some point , by the way we can have social unrest anywhere in the world given the high unemployment that we are facing in most countries , but that could derail growth in China for a while and then we have geopolitical problems coming up , the south china sea and so forth and so on so there are many things that could go wrong


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