Thursday, July 19, 2012

Marc Faber : China Slowdown to have a huge impact on Commodity Prices

Marc Faber : When the Chinese economy was strong 2000-2008, it drove up commodity prices and that boosted growth rates in emerging economies such as Brazil, Argentina, and the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, and central Asia, Russia and of course also Africa and Australasia.
When the Chinese economy slumps, then obviously the demand for commodities goes down and these countries have less money and so they buy less and so it has a very strong multiplier effect on the global economy.
Whether the US contracts or grows at 2% has no impact on commodity demand or the service industry. If China grows at 12% or only at 3%, that will have a huge impact on commodity prices.
I think that the slowdown in the Chinese economy – and believe me, the Chinese economy did not grow in the second quarter by 7.8% - in my view, maximum 3% - and we have very precise statistics.
The two countries where the exports were predominantly China-geared – Taiwan and South Korea and where the statistics are more reliable than what the Chinese announced in GDP growth, these countries have negative export growth on a year-on-year bases in the last month in June. If these countries have declining exports, it tells you something about the Chinese economy.
We have other reliable statistics like gaming revenues in Macau and so forth. The overall revenues are still up but the junkit turnover is down. These are middle men who bring the gamblers to Macau. Their growth rate has slowed down, luxury consumption has slowed down and electricity consumption is basically flat. Steel and cement production is up maximum 2-4% year-on year and so we have some reliable statistics.
Macdonalds just reported that their sales in Asia year-on-year is down more than 1%. Believe me if in a growth region, where markets are not yet saturated and where shops like MacDonalds are like prestige things for families to go and where their sales are down believe me – something is not quite right. I can see it with my own eyes. I don’t think that in Asia at the present time there is any economic growth. - in Citywire


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