Sunday, September 29, 2013

I am very Skeptical of any Forecasts, Especially long term Forecasts

There are some people that will say that it will look this way or that way. I am very skeptical of any forecasts, especially long term forecasts. There are some trends that we can see about how society has changed in the last 30 years. I moved to Asia 40 years ago and I can see that Asia has developed a lot and grown a lot and we can see this. But I do not know if in 5 years or 10 years if Asia will continue to develop at the pace it developed in the last 40 years. I can see very clearly that until now, the middle class and the poor people admired the successful rich people. Now, partly under Western influence, there are some misgivings about the distribution of income and wealth. We see this very pronounced in Hong Kong and Singapore where there are a few families that own a great deal of the properties that are incredibly rich and the people pay very high rents and their real incomes, in other words incomes adjusted for inflation, have been going down. So these people ask themselves these questions and then go and demonstrate. So we have some social problems in Asia. Of course, as I have mentioned, we have some geopolitical problems in the world, obviously in the Middle East. We have this rise of the Chinese geopolitical influence in the world and the old masters, the US and Europe, they see their influence waning and they do not like it. So also there, tensions will arise. - in The Prospect Group:


Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.



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