Sunday, December 6, 2015
The Global Economy is not as the Federal Reserve expect it to be
Marc Faber : Well, I’m glad that you say I’ve been right about something, because whenever I’m on CNBC or Bloomberg, they always put me down about everything.
But yes, I wasn’t very optimistic about emerging economies at that time and I think I’m still cautious but I have to qualify these statements.
Basically, most of the world today economically depends on Chinese economic growth. When China is growing rapidly, they buy a lot of resources from the resource-producing economies of the world. Whether it’s in Latin America, Africa, Australasia, Central Asia, Russia—they also have a boom, and then they buy more goods from the industrialized countries of the world. So the whole global economy picks up in that context.
On the other hand, when China slows down, everything goes into reverse and you have essentially a vicious circle on the down side.
My sense is that the global economy is not as the Federal Reserve and other groups expect it to be in terms of accelerating on the upside, but actually that it’s in contracting mode and let me explain partly why.
If the Japanese and the Europeans pursue very expansionary monetary policies, it means that those currencies go down against the US dollar. So in dollar terms, their economic activity shrinks. As their currencies go down and economic activity shrinks in dollar terms, they buy less goods also. So then the global economy contracts. - in Sprott Global
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
Posted by Nicole Bourbaki